Von der Leyen set to win vote of confidence, but question marks will remain

Brussels – Ursula von der Leyen and her second European Commission can rest assured: the censure motion filed against them will not pass. The Populars (EPP), Socialists (S&D), Liberals (Re), and Greens publicly announce that they will vote against it, thus ensuring confidence and survival of the EU executive, as well as continuation of the legislature.

The presidents and spokespersons of the groups cannot bluff much any more: it is going to be a roll-call vote, so everyone will know exactly how each person voted. If such statements are made ahead of the vote, in the end, there will be no deviation from what has been announced. Indeed, the outcome could reflect the case’s various nuances because, on closer inspection, only von der Leyen’s own EPP anticipates a united and unambiguous vote against the motion. The other groups announced their support for the EU Commission president, but did not specify the extent of the support. This means that some will certainly abstain to increase the number of abstentions, some will leave the chamber, and some may even vote against. 

In any event, the mood—though not a showdown—is calling for some clarification. In this, the spokeswoman for the Socialists, Utta Tuttlies, is the most incisive: ‘The situation we find ourselves in is the result of the responsibilities of the European People’s Party and its double-dealing,” she scolds. A criticism of the Popular Party and its leadership, in the person of Manfred Weber, that voted with the right, the same right-wing that is now forcing von der Leyen into a vote of confidence: “It is up to the EPP to decide with whom to establish ties, whether with us or with those who tabled this motion of censure.”

At a time when the EU suddenly finds itself debating its own political course, the Socialists, not free from discontent, play the card of responsibility and guarantee. “To question the institutions today would be madness,” stressed Annalisa Corrado (PD). Moreover, the agenda of the plenary session includes the Russian-Ukrainian war, tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, complex relations with the United States, and the sustainable competitiveness agenda — unexpected challenges that require keeping a steady course,  one that is not there. “The right-wing national governments want to weaken the Commission, we want to strengthen it,” the Dem exponent goes on to say. 

So, support comes on credit from the socialists, forging ahead but warning that nothing can be taken for granted.

Even the Liberals are driven by different internal factions that want support, but with the condition of not looking too far to the right.

In the meantime, the Greens are far from united. While the group announces that it will oppose the censure motion, the Italian delegation has not yet made up its mind and reserves the right to decide on Monday, before the debate, said Benedetta Scuderi (AVS).

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The Conservative group (ECR) is divided. “This motion is the initiative of individuals, not of the group,” the spokesman cuts short. It marks a split within the group and also on the right. While sovereignists (PfE) and eurosceptics (ESN) will vote in favor of the censure motion, thereby against von der Leyen, the ECR is likely to split, with mistrust from the Poles and Romanians, and confidence from the Italians. For the other members, the vote will tell. Considering the sentiment that is certainly not pro-Europe among the non-attached members, there are some 198 votes against von der Leyen, in addition to which there could be those of The Left, tempted to vote against this Commission again. In addition to the wild cards. 

The second von der Leyen Commission will remain standing, but may emerge weakened from the vote, or, paradoxically, strengthened. When all is said and done, the second von der Leyen Commission was voted with the weakest majority ever (370 votes in favor, 282 against, and 36 abstentions). This could be the reason for the confidence of the Socialists and Greens: to strengthen von der Leyen as an anti-right figure and to send a clear political message of values and agenda. The Liberals are otherwise clear: the cordon sanitaire for Renew remains a valid principle.